Model probability vs market odds

Where our model most disagrees with the market: 4 divergences

For pre-match bettors: our model probability next to the de-vigged market price, in both directions, with the best price we can find. These are prompts to investigate — our settled record shows the model has no demonstrated edge at picking sides.

Market more confident Chelsea win Fulham vs Chelsea Model 33.5% · Market 49.1% · Edge -15.6pp Best odds 1.98 at stake · value -34% Model far above market Fulham win Fulham vs Chelsea Model 40.3% · Market 25.8% · Edge +14.5pp Best odds 3.75 at cloudbet · value +51% Model far above market Brentford win Brentford vs Tottenham Hotspur Model 53.1% · Market 38.8% · Edge +14.3pp Best odds 2.47 at stake · value +31% Market more confident Tottenham Hotspur win Brentford vs Tottenham Hotspur Model 22.7% · Market 34.9% · Edge -12.2pp Best odds 2.75 at stake · value -38%

See the divergence board → See the track record

67/104 64.4% 2026 hit rate 1 pick streak +4.7u +4.6% on 102 priced 56.6% 22-World Cup backtest +0.02pp closing-line edge over 74 settled

FootyTips live model record: 67/104, 64.4% hit rate

World Cup 2026 — final record

The World Cup is settled. The scoreboard stays public.

The model closed the World Cup 2026 at 67/104 settled calls (64.4%), with every hit and miss published in the results ledger. The same model now covers the Premier League.

See the track record Audit the results

Premier League 2026/27 kicks off Aug 21

3 days to go 10 matches

Opening-round model probabilities are already live — tap through for score forecasts and market odds. More fixtures are added as they are confirmed.

All Premier League fixtures →

Arsenal vs Coventry City Not started Kickoff 19:00 UTC Arsenal favoured · 79% / 14% / 7% Hull City vs Manchester United Not started Kickoff 11:30 UTC Manchester United favoured · 10% / 16% / 74% Everton vs Crystal Palace Not started Kickoff 14:00 UTC Everton favoured · 42% / 26% / 32% Ipswich Town vs Sunderland Not started Kickoff 14:00 UTC Sunderland favoured · 34% / 26% / 40% Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United Not started Kickoff 14:00 UTC Nottingham Forest favoured · 44% / 26% / 30% Brentford vs Tottenham Hotspur Not started Kickoff 16:30 UTC Brentford favoured · 53% / 24% / 23% Manchester City vs Bournemouth Not started Kickoff 13:00 UTC Manchester City favoured · 57% / 23% / 20% Brighton and Hove Albion vs Aston Villa Not started Kickoff 13:00 UTC Brighton and Hove Albion favoured · 38% / 26% / 36% Newcastle United vs Liverpool Not started Kickoff 15:30 UTC Liverpool favoured · 33% / 26% / 41% Fulham vs Chelsea Not started Kickoff 19:00 UTC Fulham favoured · 40% / 26% / 34%

Premier League 2026/27 Title Race

20,000 Monte Carlo season simulations — title and top-4 probabilities for the leading clubs.

Full winner prediction →

Arsenal Title 42.9% Top 4 87% Manchester City Title 31.1% Top 4 80% Manchester United Title 7.0% Top 4 44% Liverpool Title 5.3% Top 4 37% Bournemouth Title 3.7% Top 4 29%

Highest relegation risk: Coventry City 38% · Tottenham Hotspur 25%

Latest Public Receipts

Every finished match is settled in public, including misses.

Prediction results

Spain 1–0 Argentina — model called it

Model called it Spain 1–0 Argentina Predicted Spain; actual Spain.

France 4–6 England — model missed

Model missed France 4–6 England Predicted France; actual England.

England 1–2 Argentina — model called it

Model called it England 1–2 Argentina Predicted Argentina; actual Argentina.

Public Track Record

56.6%
World Cup backtest hit rate across 22 tournaments Brier 0.570
Probability quality, not only top-pick accuracy 104
2026 settled matches · 64.4% hit rate

Explore FootyTips

⚽ Premier League 2026/27
Predictions hub for the new season 🏆 EPL Winner Prediction
Title, top-4 & relegation odds ⚖️ Market Edge
Model vs odds 📆 Predictions Today
Matches on the day 📊 Sportsbook Data
Measured odds quality, not reviews ✅ Track Record
56.6% across 22 World Cups 🧠 How It Works
Our prediction model 🗄️ World Cup 2026 Archive
Final record 67/104 — every call kept

Featured Premier League Predictions

Arsenal vs Hull City · Matchweek 10 Not started

Arsenal 90% Draw 7% Hull City 3%

Kickoff 15:00 UTC · Arsenal favoured · model score 3–0

Manchester City vs Hull City · Matchweek 16 Not started

Manchester City 89% Draw 8% Hull City 3%

Kickoff 15:00 UTC · Manchester City favoured · model score 3–0

Hull City vs Arsenal · Matchweek 21 Not started

Hull City 5% Draw 11% Arsenal 84%

Kickoff 15:00 UTC · Arsenal favoured · model score 0–2

Hull City vs Manchester City · Matchweek 27 Not started

Hull City 6% Draw 12% Manchester City 82%

Kickoff 15:00 UTC · Manchester City favoured · model score 0–2

Manchester United vs Hull City · Matchweek 31 Not started

Manchester United 82% Draw 12% Hull City 6%

Kickoff 14:00 UTC · Manchester United favoured · model score 2–0

Arsenal vs Ipswich Town · Matchweek 19 Not started

Arsenal 82% Draw 12% Ipswich Town 6%

Kickoff 15:00 UTC · Arsenal favoured · model score 2–0

Football Data & Insights

Data deep-dives from 150 years and 49,000+ international matches.

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