FootyTips 
Canada vs Morocco 
Prediction
· Round of 16 · Houston Stadium
Match Status
Kickoff 17:00 UTC · Not started
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model favours Morocco to win at 58%. Overall probabilities: Canada 17%, draw 25%, Morocco 58%; model score 0-1.
Model confidence: High · top outcome 58%
model top outcome · 58%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
This match value signal
Signal: Morocco win
Model 58.2% vs market 52.9%, edge +5.3pp.
Best available odds: 1.862 at 1xbet · odds value +8%.
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Lean value: the current top sportsbook price for Morocco win is 1.86 with 1xbet. The model has it at 58.2% versus a de-vigged market probability of 52.9% (+5.3pp edge).
Small positive edge; worth monitoring, not a must-bet signal. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-07-01T04:13:10.311Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Canada win
Model 17.4% vs market 19.8%, edge -2.4pp.
Best available odds: 4.975 at 1xbet · odds value -13%.
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
No bet: the current top sportsbook price for Canada win is 4.97 with 1xbet. The model has it at 17.4% versus a de-vigged market probability of 19.8% (-2.4pp edge).
Model and market are close; no clear value signal. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-07-01T04:13:10.311Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Draw
Model 24.4% vs market 27.3%, edge -2.9pp.
Best available odds: 3.605 at 1xbet · odds value -12%.
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
No bet: the current top sportsbook price for Draw is 3.60 with 1xbet. The model has it at 24.4% versus a de-vigged market probability of 27.3% (-2.9pp edge).
Model and market are close; no clear value signal. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-07-01T04:13:10.311Z.
| Source | Canada | Draw | Morocco |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model — FootyTips Elo + Poisson | 17.4% | 24.4% | 58.2% |
| Market — de-vigged odds (1xbet) | 19.8% | 27.3% | 52.9% |
| Best estimate — model × market blend | 18.8% | 26.2% | 55.0% |
"Best estimate" blends the FootyTips model with de-vigged market odds from 1xbet (via Odds-API.io) at 40/60 in log space, frozen at kickoff.
Crypto Sportsbook Odds
Full comparison below; tap any book to verify the live price. We show a periodic snapshot, and odds move.
| Sportsbook | Canada | Draw | Morocco |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xbet | 4.975 | 3.605 | 1.862 |
| bcgame ↗ | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.79 |
| cloudbet | 4.8 | 3.45 | 1.8 |
| vave | 4.7 | 3.5 | 1.85 |
| duelbits ↗ | 4.65 | 3.45 | 1.83 |
| ★ Best | 4.975 1xbet | 3.605 1xbet | 1.862 1xbet |
Best price = highest decimal odds across the compared books (via OddsPapi). Bold = best in column. Tap a sportsbook to verify the live price on their site.
Citable facts: Canada 17% / Draw 25% / Morocco 58%; expected goals 0.83-1.73; BTTS 47%; blended best estimate 18.8%/26.2%/55.0%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results, market odds from 1xbet via Odds-API.io (snapshot 2026-07-01T04:13:10.311Z). Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- Canada win: 17%
- Draw: 25%
- Morocco win: 58%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 0-1
- Expected goals (model lambda): 0.83 - 1.73
- Over 2.5: 47%
- Both teams to score: 47%
Model Ratings
Canada Elo 1871 · Morocco Elo 2023
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-07-01. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
The model installs Morocco clear favourites at 58% in this World Cup 2026 fixture at Houston Stadium — Canada 17%, the draw 25%, Morocco 58%. A clear Elo edge to Morocco (2023 vs 1871), and the model score forecast is 0–1.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams to score at 47%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win Canada vs Morocco?
Morocco are favoured at 58%. Canada 17% / Draw 25% / Morocco 58%.
What is the predicted score for Canada vs Morocco?
Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Canada vs Morocco?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from 1xbet imply 19.8% Canada win, 27.3% draw, 52.9% Morocco win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 18.8% / 26.2% / 55.0%. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-07-01T04:13:10.311Z.
Will Canada vs Morocco have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Canada vs Morocco?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 47%.