FootyTips 
Colombia vs Ghana 
Prediction
· Round of 32 · Kansas City Stadium
Match Status
Kickoff 01:30 UTC · Not started
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model favours Colombia to win at 86%. Overall probabilities: Colombia 86%, draw 10%, Ghana 4%; model score 2-0.
Model confidence: Very High · top outcome 86%
model top outcome · 86%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
This match value signal
Signal: Colombia win
Model 86.3% vs market 63.2%, edge +23.1pp.
Best available odds: 1.558 at 1xbet · odds value +34%.
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Model–market disagreement: the current top sportsbook price for Colombia win is 1.56 with 1xbet. The model has it at 86.3% versus a de-vigged market probability of 63.2% (+23.1pp edge).
The gap between model and market is unusually large. Gaps this size usually mean the model is missing information (injuries, line-ups, form) — treat it as a caution flag, not value. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-06-30T06:08:39.06Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Ghana win
Model 3.5% vs market 12.2%, edge -8.6pp.
Best available odds: 8.1 at 1xbet · odds value -71%.
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Avoid: the current top sportsbook price for Ghana win is 8.10 with 1xbet. The model has it at 3.5% versus a de-vigged market probability of 12.2% (-8.6pp edge).
The market price is shorter than the model probability supports. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-06-30T06:08:39.06Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Draw
Model 10.2% vs market 24.7%, edge -14.5pp.
Best available odds: 4.1 at vave · odds value -58%.
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Avoid: the current top sportsbook price for Draw is 4.10 with vave. The model has it at 10.2% versus a de-vigged market probability of 24.7% (-14.5pp edge).
The market price is shorter than the model probability supports. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-06-30T06:08:39.06Z.
| Source | Colombia | Draw | Ghana |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model — FootyTips Elo + Poisson | 86.3% | 10.2% | 3.5% |
| Market — de-vigged odds (1xbet) | 63.2% | 24.7% | 12.2% |
| Best estimate — model × market blend | 74.3% | 18.0% | 7.7% |
"Best estimate" blends the FootyTips model with de-vigged market odds from 1xbet (via Odds-API.io) at 40/60 in log space, frozen at kickoff.
Crypto Sportsbook Odds
Full comparison below; tap any book to verify the live price. We show a periodic snapshot, and odds move.
| Sportsbook | Colombia | Draw | Ghana |
|---|---|---|---|
| stake ↗ | 1.51 | 3.95 | 6.8 |
| 1xbet | 1.558 | 3.99 | 8.1 |
| bcgame ↗ | 1.51 | 3.85 | 7 |
| cloudbet | 1.51 | 3.95 | 7.25 |
| vave | 1.53 | 4.1 | 7.2 |
| duelbits ↗ | 1.52 | 4 | 7 |
| ★ Best | 1.558 1xbet | 4.1 vave | 8.1 1xbet |
Best price = highest decimal odds across the compared books (via OddsPapi). Bold = best in column. Tap a sportsbook to verify the live price on their site.
Citable facts: Colombia 86% / Draw 10% / Ghana 4%; expected goals 2.95-0.49; BTTS 37%; blended best estimate 74.3%/18.0%/7.7%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results, market odds from 1xbet via Odds-API.io (snapshot 2026-06-30T06:08:39.06Z). Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- Colombia win: 86%
- Draw: 10%
- Ghana win: 4%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 2-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 2.95 - 0.49
- Over 2.5: 67%
- Both teams to score: 37%
Model Ratings
Colombia Elo 2082 · Ghana Elo 1707
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-07-01. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model rates Colombia clear favourites at 86% in this World Cup 2026 fixture at Kansas City Stadium — Colombia 86%, the draw 10%, Ghana 4%. A big Elo gap in Colombia's favour (2082 vs 1707), and the model score forecast is 2–0.
Expect an open game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 67% and both teams to score at 37%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win Colombia vs Ghana?
Colombia are favoured at 86%. Colombia 86% / Draw 10% / Ghana 4%.
What is the predicted score for Colombia vs Ghana?
Our model score forecast is 2-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Colombia vs Ghana?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from 1xbet imply 63.2% Colombia win, 24.7% draw, 12.2% Ghana win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 74.3% / 18.0% / 7.7%. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-06-30T06:08:39.06Z.
Will Colombia vs Ghana have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Colombia vs Ghana?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 37%.