Croatia vs Ghana Prediction
· Group Stage - 3 · Lincoln Financial Field
Our model gives Croatia a 71% chance to win this World Cup 2026 match-up, with a most likely score of 2–0.
Win Probability
- Croatia win: 71%
- Draw: 18%
- Ghana win: 12%
Goals & Scoreline
- Most likely score: 2–0
- Expected goals (model λ): 2.28 – 0.80
- Over 2.5 goals: 59%
- Both teams to score: 49%
Model Ratings
Croatia Elo 1900 · Ghana Elo 1740
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-03. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Croatia are strong favourites at 71% against Ghana (12%), with the draw at 18% and a 2–0 most likely. Croatia's rating (1900 vs 1740) and pedigree give them the edge.
Ghana will need to be bold, which could open the game up: 59% for over 2.5 goals. With qualification likely on the line, Croatia's experience in tight tournament games could prove decisive.
FAQ
Who will win Croatia vs Ghana?
Croatia are favoured with a 71% win probability. Croatia 71% / Draw 18% / Ghana 12%.
What is the predicted score for Croatia vs Ghana?
Our model's most likely scoreline is 2–0.
Will Croatia vs Ghana have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Croatia vs Ghana?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 49%.