Egypt vs Iran Prediction
· Group Stage - 3 · Lumen Field
Our model gives Egypt a 47% chance to win this World Cup 2026 match-up, with a most likely score of 1–1.
Win Probability
- Egypt win: 47%
- Draw: 25%
- Iran win: 28%
Goals & Scoreline
- Most likely score: 1–1
- Expected goals (model λ): 1.57 – 1.16
- Over 2.5 goals: 51%
- Both teams to score: 54%
Model Ratings
Egypt Elo 1800 · Iran Elo 1790
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-03. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Egypt edge it at 47% against Iran (28%), with the draw at 25%. The ratings are close (1800 vs 1790), and the model expects a tight 1–1 in what could be a straight shootout for qualification.
Both teams to score at 54%. Two well-organised sides who like to counter could cancel each other out — game state and a moment of individual quality may ultimately decide who advances behind Belgium.
FAQ
Who will win Egypt vs Iran?
Egypt are favoured with a 47% win probability. Egypt 47% / Draw 25% / Iran 28%.
What is the predicted score for Egypt vs Iran?
Our model's most likely scoreline is 1–1.
Will Egypt vs Iran have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Egypt vs Iran?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 54%.