England vs Croatia Prediction
· Group Stage - 1 · AT&T Stadium
Our model gives England a 63% chance to win this World Cup 2026 match-up, with a most likely score of 2–0.
Win Probability
- England win: 63%
- Draw: 21%
- Croatia win: 16%
Goals & Scoreline
- Most likely score: 2–0
- Expected goals (model λ): 2.01 – 0.90
- Over 2.5 goals: 56%
- Both teams to score: 52%
Model Ratings
England Elo 2010 · Croatia Elo 1900
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-03. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
England open Group L as favourites at 63% in a repeat of recent tournament meetings with Croatia (16%), the draw at 21% and a 2–0 most likely. England's rating (2010 vs 1900) gives them the edge.
Croatia's midfield craft has troubled England before and demands respect. Over 2.5 at 56%. Expect a tactical contest: if England impose their tempo they should prevail, but Croatia's experience makes them dangerous.
FAQ
Who will win England vs Croatia?
England are favoured with a 63% win probability. England 63% / Draw 21% / Croatia 16%.
What is the predicted score for England vs Croatia?
Our model's most likely scoreline is 2–0.
Will England vs Croatia have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in England vs Croatia?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 52%.