France vs Senegal Prediction
· Group Stage - 1 · MetLife Stadium
Our model gives France a 81% chance to win this World Cup 2026 match-up, with a most likely score of 2–0.
Win Probability
- France win: 81%
- Draw: 12%
- Senegal win: 6%
Goals & Scoreline
- Most likely score: 2–0
- Expected goals (model λ): 2.79 – 0.65
- Over 2.5 goals: 67%
- Both teams to score: 45%
Model Ratings
France Elo 2060 · Senegal Elo 1820
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-03. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
France open Group I as strong favourites at 81% against Senegal (6%), with the draw at 12% and a 2–0 most likely. France's rating (2060) is among the tournament's elite, well clear of a capable Senegal (1820).
Senegal, African champions in recent memory, have the athletes to threaten on the break, but the model strongly favours France: 67% for over 2.5 goals. Expect Les Bleus to control and take their chances against a dangerous but outgunned opponent.
FAQ
Who will win France vs Senegal?
France are favoured with a 81% win probability. France 81% / Draw 12% / Senegal 6%.
What is the predicted score for France vs Senegal?
Our model's most likely scoreline is 2–0.
Will France vs Senegal have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in France vs Senegal?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 45%.