FootyTips 
Germany vs Paraguay 
Prediction
· Round of 32 · Boston Stadium
Match Status
Germany 1-1 Paraguay · FT · Miss
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model favours Germany to win at 49%. Overall probabilities: Germany 49%, draw 27%, Paraguay 24%; model score 1-0.
Model confidence: Medium · top outcome 49%
model top outcome · 49%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No market odds connected yet. FootyTips shows model probabilities for this match, but no value signal is shown until a licensed odds snapshot is imported.
Citable facts: Germany 49% / Draw 27% / Paraguay 24%; expected goals 1.50-0.96; BTTS 48%; blended best estimate 60.4%/23.2%/16.4%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Miss: Final score Germany 1-1 Paraguay. Model pick: Germany. Actual result: Draw.
Brier contribution: 0.8313 · settled 2026-07-01
Win Probability
- Germany win: 49%
- Draw: 27%
- Paraguay win: 24%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 1-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.50 - 0.96
- Over 2.5: 45%
- Both teams to score: 48%
Model Ratings
Germany Elo 1985 · Paraguay Elo 1908
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-29. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model rates Germany clear favourites at 49% in this World Cup 2026 fixture at Boston Stadium — Germany 49%, the draw 27%, Paraguay 24%. A modest Elo edge to Germany (1985 vs 1908), and the model score forecast is 1–0.
Expect a cagey game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and both teams to score at 48%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win Germany vs Paraguay?
Germany are favoured at 49%. Germany 49% / Draw 27% / Paraguay 24%.
What is the predicted score for Germany vs Paraguay?
Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Germany vs Paraguay?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 67.2% Germany win, 20.3% draw, 12.5% Paraguay win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 60.4% / 23.2% / 16.4%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Germany vs Paraguay have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Germany vs Paraguay?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 48%.