Iraq vs Norway Prediction
· Group Stage - 1 · Gillette Stadium
Our model gives Norway a 53% chance to win this World Cup 2026 match-up, with a most likely score of 1–1.
Win Probability
- Iraq win: 23%
- Draw: 24%
- Norway win: 53%
Goals & Scoreline
- Most likely score: 1–1
- Expected goals (model λ): 1.05 – 1.73
- Over 2.5 goals: 53%
- Both teams to score: 54%
Model Ratings
Iraq Elo 1680 · Norway Elo 1830
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-03. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Norway are favoured at 53% against Iraq (23%), with the draw at 24%. Norway's rating (1830 vs 1680) gives them the edge, though in a tight opener the single likeliest scoreline is a 1–1.
Norway's attacking talent makes them many people's dark horses, but Iraq are organised and committed. Both teams to score at 54%. A fast Norwegian start would settle nerves; Iraq will look to stay compact and frustrate.
FAQ
Who will win Iraq vs Norway?
Norway are favoured with a 53% win probability. Iraq 23% / Draw 24% / Norway 53%.
What is the predicted score for Iraq vs Norway?
Our model's most likely scoreline is 1–1.
Will Iraq vs Norway have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Iraq vs Norway?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 54%.