Japan vs Sweden Prediction
· Group Stage - 3 · AT&T Stadium
Our model gives Japan a 55% chance to win this World Cup 2026 match-up, with a most likely score of 1–1.
Win Probability
- Japan win: 55%
- Draw: 23%
- Sweden win: 22%
Goals & Scoreline
- Most likely score: 1–1
- Expected goals (model λ): 1.78 – 1.03
- Over 2.5 goals: 53%
- Both teams to score: 53%
Model Ratings
Japan Elo 1850 · Sweden Elo 1790
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-03. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Japan are favoured at 55% against Sweden (22%), with the draw at 23%. Japan's rating edge (1850 vs 1790) is modest, and the model expects a tight 1–1 in what could be a decisive final-round clash.
With qualification likely on the line, expect a nervy, balanced game: 53% for both to score. Japan's movement against Swedish structure should make for a tense contest where one moment decides who goes through.
FAQ
Who will win Japan vs Sweden?
Japan are favoured with a 55% win probability. Japan 55% / Draw 23% / Sweden 22%.
What is the predicted score for Japan vs Sweden?
Our model's most likely scoreline is 1–1.
Will Japan vs Sweden have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Japan vs Sweden?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 53%.