Netherlands vs Sweden Prediction
· Group Stage - 2 · Reliant Stadium
Our model gives Netherlands a 75% chance to win this World Cup 2026 match-up, with a most likely score of 2–0.
Win Probability
- Netherlands win: 75%
- Draw: 16%
- Sweden win: 9%
Goals & Scoreline
- Most likely score: 2–0
- Expected goals (model λ): 2.46 – 0.74
- Over 2.5 goals: 62%
- Both teams to score: 48%
Model Ratings
Netherlands Elo 1980 · Sweden Elo 1790
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-03. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
The Netherlands are strong favourites at 75% against Sweden (9%), with the draw at 16% and a 2–0 projected. The Dutch rating (1980 vs 1790) makes them clear group front-runners.
Sweden will need to defend deep and take their chances. Over 2.5 goals at 62%. A win here would all but seal the Netherlands' progress and pile pressure on the chasing pack.
FAQ
Who will win Netherlands vs Sweden?
Netherlands are favoured with a 75% win probability. Netherlands 75% / Draw 16% / Sweden 9%.
What is the predicted score for Netherlands vs Sweden?
Our model's most likely scoreline is 2–0.
Will Netherlands vs Sweden have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Netherlands vs Sweden?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 48%.