Paraguay vs Australia Prediction
· Group Stage - 3 · Levi's Stadium
Our model gives Paraguay a 50% chance to win this World Cup 2026 match-up, with a most likely score of 1–1.
Win Probability
- Paraguay win: 50%
- Draw: 24%
- Australia win: 26%
Goals & Scoreline
- Most likely score: 1–1
- Expected goals (model λ): 1.65 – 1.11
- Over 2.5 goals: 52%
- Both teams to score: 54%
Model Ratings
Paraguay Elo 1770 · Australia Elo 1740
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-03. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
A true toss-up: Paraguay at 50%, Australia at 26% and the draw at 24%. The sides are closely rated (1770 vs 1740), and the model expects a tight 1–1 in a game that could decide who progresses.
Both teams favour a physical, organised approach, so chances may be limited — yet both to score sits at 54%. With qualification potentially on the line, nerve and game management could matter as much as quality in this final-round clash.
FAQ
Who will win Paraguay vs Australia?
Paraguay are favoured with a 50% win probability. Paraguay 50% / Draw 24% / Australia 26%.
What is the predicted score for Paraguay vs Australia?
Our model's most likely scoreline is 1–1.
Will Paraguay vs Australia have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Paraguay vs Australia?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 54%.