FootyTips 
Paraguay vs France 
Prediction
· Round of 16 · Philadelphia Stadium
Match Status
Kickoff 21:00 UTC · Not started
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model favours France to win at 76%. Overall probabilities: Paraguay 8%, draw 16%, France 76%; model score 0-2.
Model confidence: Very High · top outcome 76%
model top outcome · 76%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
This match value signal
Signal: Draw
Model 16.4% vs market 12.6%, edge +3.8pp.
Best available odds: 7.6 at 1xbet · odds value +25%.
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
No bet: the current top sportsbook price for Draw is 7.60 with 1xbet. The model has it at 16.4% versus a de-vigged market probability of 12.6% (+3.8pp edge).
Model and market are close; no clear value signal. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-06-30T23:08:38.614Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Paraguay win
Model 7.7% vs market 5.3%, edge +2.4pp.
Best available odds: 18 at 1xbet · odds value +38%.
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
No bet: the current top sportsbook price for Paraguay win is 18.00 with 1xbet. The model has it at 7.7% versus a de-vigged market probability of 5.3% (+2.4pp edge).
Model and market are close; no clear value signal. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-06-30T23:08:38.614Z.
This match value signal
Signal: France win
Model 75.9% vs market 82.0%, edge -6.2pp.
Best available odds: 1.17 at 1xbet · odds value -11%.
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Avoid: the current top sportsbook price for France win is 1.17 with 1xbet. The model has it at 75.9% versus a de-vigged market probability of 82.0% (-6.2pp edge).
The market price is shorter than the model probability supports. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-06-30T23:08:38.614Z.
| Source | Paraguay | Draw | France |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model — FootyTips Elo + Poisson | 7.7% | 16.4% | 75.9% |
| Market — de-vigged odds (1xbet) | 5.3% | 12.6% | 82.0% |
| Best estimate — model × market blend | 6.2% | 14.1% | 79.7% |
"Best estimate" blends the FootyTips model with de-vigged market odds from 1xbet (via Odds-API.io) at 40/60 in log space, frozen at kickoff.
Citable facts: Paraguay 8% / Draw 16% / France 76%; expected goals 0.61-2.34; BTTS 42%; blended best estimate 6.2%/14.1%/79.7%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results, market odds from 1xbet via Odds-API.io (snapshot 2026-06-30T23:08:38.614Z). Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- Paraguay win: 8%
- Draw: 16%
- France win: 76%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 0-2
- Expected goals (model lambda): 0.61 - 2.34
- Over 2.5: 57%
- Both teams to score: 42%
Model Ratings
Paraguay Elo 1908 · France Elo 2187
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-07-01. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model rates France clear favourites at 76% in this World Cup 2026 fixture at Philadelphia Stadium — Paraguay 8%, the draw 16%, France 76%. A big Elo gap in France's favour (2187 vs 1908), and the model score forecast is 0–2.
Expect an open game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams to score at 42%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win Paraguay vs France?
France are favoured at 76%. Paraguay 8% / Draw 16% / France 76%.
What is the predicted score for Paraguay vs France?
Our model score forecast is 0-2, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Paraguay vs France?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from 1xbet imply 5.3% Paraguay win, 12.6% draw, 82.0% France win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 6.2% / 14.1% / 79.7%. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-06-30T23:08:38.614Z.
Will Paraguay vs France have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Paraguay vs France?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 42%.