Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay Prediction
· Group Stage - 1 · Hard Rock Stadium
Our model gives Uruguay a 60% chance to win this World Cup 2026 match-up, with a most likely score of 0–1.
Win Probability
- Saudi Arabia win: 18%
- Draw: 22%
- Uruguay win: 60%
Goals & Scoreline
- Most likely score: 0–1
- Expected goals (model λ): 0.95 – 1.92
- Over 2.5 goals: 55%
- Both teams to score: 52%
Model Ratings
Saudi Arabia Elo 1690 · Uruguay Elo 1880
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-03. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Uruguay are favoured at 60% against Saudi Arabia (18%), with the draw at 22% and a 0–1 away win most likely. Uruguay's rating (1880 vs 1690) and pedigree give them the edge.
Saudi Arabia memorably upset Argentina in 2022 and will fancy another scalp, but the model expects Uruguayan control. Over 2.5 at 55%. A composed Uruguay should edge a tight, tactical contest.
FAQ
Who will win Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay?
Uruguay are favoured with a 60% win probability. Saudi Arabia 18% / Draw 22% / Uruguay 60%.
What is the predicted score for Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay?
Our model's most likely scoreline is 0–1.
Will Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 52%.