Tunisia vs Japan Prediction
· Group Stage - 2 · Estadio BBVA
Our model gives Japan a 48% chance to win this World Cup 2026 match-up, with a most likely score of 1–1.
Win Probability
- Tunisia win: 27%
- Draw: 25%
- Japan win: 48%
Goals & Scoreline
- Most likely score: 1–1
- Expected goals (model λ): 1.13 – 1.61
- Over 2.5 goals: 52%
- Both teams to score: 54%
Model Ratings
Tunisia Elo 1730 · Japan Elo 1850
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-03. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Japan are favoured at 48% against Tunisia (27%), with the draw at 25%. Japan's rating (1850 vs 1730) gives them the edge, but in a tight game the single likeliest scoreline is a 1–1.
This could be decisive in the battle for second behind the Netherlands. Both teams to score at 54%. Japan's tempo against Tunisia's organisation is the key matchup — a single goal may settle a knockout place.
FAQ
Who will win Tunisia vs Japan?
Japan are favoured with a 48% win probability. Tunisia 27% / Draw 25% / Japan 48%.
What is the predicted score for Tunisia vs Japan?
Our model's most likely scoreline is 1–1.
Will Tunisia vs Japan have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Tunisia vs Japan?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 54%.