Tunisia vs Netherlands Prediction
· Group Stage - 3 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Our model gives Netherlands a 69% chance to win this World Cup 2026 match-up, with a most likely score of 0–2.
Win Probability
- Tunisia win: 12%
- Draw: 18%
- Netherlands win: 69%
Goals & Scoreline
- Most likely score: 0–2
- Expected goals (model λ): 0.82 – 2.23
- Over 2.5 goals: 59%
- Both teams to score: 50%
Model Ratings
Tunisia Elo 1730 · Netherlands Elo 1980
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-03. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
The Netherlands are heavily favoured at 69% against Tunisia (12%), with the draw at 18% and a 0–2 the most likely result. Dutch quality (1980 vs 1730) should tell in this final-round game.
Tunisia may need a positive result to advance, forcing them out of their defensive comfort zone. Over 2.5 at 59%. The Netherlands will fancy controlling the game and protecting top spot.
FAQ
Who will win Tunisia vs Netherlands?
Netherlands are favoured with a 69% win probability. Tunisia 12% / Draw 18% / Netherlands 69%.
What is the predicted score for Tunisia vs Netherlands?
Our model's most likely scoreline is 0–2.
Will Tunisia vs Netherlands have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Tunisia vs Netherlands?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 50%.