Turkey vs Paraguay Prediction
· Group Stage - 2 · Levi's Stadium
Our model gives Turkey a 57% chance to win this World Cup 2026 match-up, with a most likely score of 1–1.
Win Probability
- Turkey win: 57%
- Draw: 23%
- Paraguay win: 21%
Goals & Scoreline
- Most likely score: 1–1
- Expected goals (model λ): 1.82 – 1.00
- Over 2.5 goals: 54%
- Both teams to score: 53%
Model Ratings
Turkey Elo 1840 · Paraguay Elo 1770
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-03. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Turkey start favourites at 57% against Paraguay (21%), with the draw at 23%, helped by a rating edge (1840 vs 1770). Goals look scarce, so the single likeliest scoreline is a 1–1 despite Turkey's favouritism.
Paraguay's organisation makes them awkward opponents, and this fixture could shape the battle for second behind the USA. Both teams to score at 53% — Turkey's creativity against Paraguayan discipline is the contest to watch.
FAQ
Who will win Turkey vs Paraguay?
Turkey are favoured with a 57% win probability. Turkey 57% / Draw 23% / Paraguay 21%.
What is the predicted score for Turkey vs Paraguay?
Our model's most likely scoreline is 1–1.
Will Turkey vs Paraguay have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Turkey vs Paraguay?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 53%.