Uruguay vs Spain Prediction
· Group Stage - 3 · Estadio Akron
Our model gives Spain a 57% chance to win this World Cup 2026 match-up, with a most likely score of 1–1.
Win Probability
- Uruguay win: 21%
- Draw: 23%
- Spain win: 57%
Goals & Scoreline
- Most likely score: 1–1
- Expected goals (model λ): 1.00 – 1.82
- Over 2.5 goals: 54%
- Both teams to score: 53%
Model Ratings
Uruguay Elo 1880 · Spain Elo 2050
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-03. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Spain are favoured at 57% against Uruguay (21%), with the draw at 23%. Spain's rating (2050 vs 1880) gives them the edge, though in a meeting of two strong sides the single likeliest scoreline is a 1–1.
This heavyweight final-round clash could decide top spot. Both teams to score at 53%. Spain's possession against Uruguay's competitive edge promises a high-quality contest with seeding implications for the knockouts.
FAQ
Who will win Uruguay vs Spain?
Spain are favoured with a 57% win probability. Uruguay 21% / Draw 23% / Spain 57%.
What is the predicted score for Uruguay vs Spain?
Our model's most likely scoreline is 1–1.
Will Uruguay vs Spain have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Uruguay vs Spain?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 53%.