USA vs Paraguay Prediction
· Group Stage - 1 · SoFi Stadium
Our model gives USA a 53% chance to win this World Cup 2026 match-up, with a most likely score of 1–1.
Win Probability
- USA win: 53%
- Draw: 24%
- Paraguay win: 23%
Goals & Scoreline
- Most likely score: 1–1
- Expected goals (model λ): 1.73 – 1.05
- Over 2.5 goals: 53%
- Both teams to score: 54%
Model Ratings
USA Elo 1820 · Paraguay Elo 1770
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-03. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Co-hosts USA open as slight favourites at 53% against Paraguay (23%), with the draw at 24%. Home advantage and a modest rating edge (1820 vs 1770) point to a tight game and a most likely 1–1 scoreline.
Paraguay's traditional defensive resilience could frustrate the hosts. With both teams to score at 54%, the USA will need patience and a roaring home crowd to break through in a contest finer than the win probability suggests.
FAQ
Who will win USA vs Paraguay?
USA are favoured with a 53% win probability. USA 53% / Draw 24% / Paraguay 23%.
What is the predicted score for USA vs Paraguay?
Our model's most likely scoreline is 1–1.
Will USA vs Paraguay have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in USA vs Paraguay?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 54%.